Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Fed rate cuts are a joke

Every time the Fed meets, Wall Street is giddy with anticipation on what the Fed will do next.

Traders make a game out of this process taking bets on what the rate is going to be. The markets spikes in a direction after the announcement and everyone take their gains or over their losses.

Don't over analyze this, it is just a game. Traders are solely basing their decisions off the expectations of other traders which are based off the expectations of other traders. This whole process has nothing to do with real valuations of the companies that they are buying into. This whole process just turns out to be a joke.

After the market absorb the news from the Fed, its effect on stock prices will become insignificant as Wall Street starts to play next weeks game, like guess the earnings of large cap ABC.

Serious long term investors shouldn't be suckered into this game. If the long term outlook of the company you invested in depends on the Fed funds rate, then you are taking on too much risk. Good companies are to be able to weather unforeseeable changes in the economy like changes in the Fed funds rate.

A company might have to pay a higher interest rate a loan hurting earnings by a penny, but everyone is in the same boat. Good companies will be able to stand up these minor fluctuations in the economy and continue to be successful in the long run. There is no reason to change your decision about your investment unless it was a bad company to begin with.

Ignore the volatility on the street and focus on long term fundamentals. Leave the games to the traders and fools.

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