Monday, May 19, 2008

Efficient use of the Efficient Market Hypothesis

If I believed in the Efficient Market Hypothesis, I wouldn't be trying to beat the market, yet I still use the EMH all the time in the markets.

Using the EMH is a great way to filter out information. When I don't understand how something works in the market, I just assume its efficient. Efficient markets are average returns so you might as well just buy the S&P 500 index instead. What I want to focus all my energy on is the inefficiencies, where I can make excess returns.

One sector of stocks I use the EMH is the financials. CNBC talks about this sector daily and there is probably some value in there somewhere with the crazy volatility. I just don't know where to find it or what actually goes behind the scenes at the organizations. They are too complex for me to understand especially with all the complex derivatives involved, so I just assume they are efficient.

While everyone was playing the game whether their financial stock was a value or a value trap, I just used the EMH and looked for easier plays. CNBC's constant coverage makes it seem like you have to play this sector, but it was really just a fools game as far as I know.

I would like to modify the EMH, to change it from there is no way to beat the market, to there is no EASY way to beat the market. If you want excess returns, you have to devote time and energy. If you aren't willing to put the effort, then you should follow the EMH, and buy a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds.

Although I believe that the markets are inefficient more times than not, the EMH has practical uses for investors. You have to be gifted just to find a few inefficiencies, but it is impossible for a mortal to find them all.

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