This might be my first bear market that I've experienced, but it seems like everyone on CNBC agrees that that stocks will go up after the point of capitulation.
My main problem is that everyone agrees on this. If there is a clear signal to make money by timing the bottom, it will be arbitrage out of the market. If the VIX has to get at a certain level (I don't know what it is because I don't care) then people will start buying before that magical number is reached which completely ruins the signal. Thus the consensous agrees that the bear market will continue.
Another problem I have with this is that it is 100% techinical. It has no basis for the actual businesses in the economy itself and doesn't have to be the sign for the bottom.
The bottom could occur when we least expect it, and could lack the drama that everyone expects. The herd could be waiting for this signal, and completely miss the first leg of the next bull market.
I am not going to try to time the bottom, because I believe it is a futile exercise. Just buy the companies that are undervalued, and you should be doing fine in the long run whether you call the bottom or not.
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