One of the few times I use technical analysis is to avoid falling knifes, and NVDA looks like one right now. In a bull market, I would expect NVDA to pop up rather soon but not right now.
However, since NVDA is priced really really low, it could still be a good time to start buying now. Although NVDA looks like a falling knife, it could really be near the bottom right now for all we know. It is near impossible to predict the absolute bottom.
I figure a good way to play these types of stocks is to start a small position now, and keep on adding to it later. This way you can hedge your costs basis no matter what the stock will do. This way you can keep emotionally sane while accumulating shares, which will make you a lot more rational in the process. Striving for perfection is the sure way to be overly emotional, which will adversely affect your performance.
Now this catching falling knife strategy only works if the fundamentals are strong for the long term. If a company has lots of debt or is losing its competitive edge, don't mess with it. Just because a stocks price looks cheap doesn't mean it is. Research the companies first, and perform the proper due dilegence.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
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