Wednesday, August 6, 2008

The long term is a painful route in these markets

LDK, which is my biggest holding has definitely been volatile and I have had some huge swings in my portfolio. My performance record looks ugly, but I am confident in this stock in the end.

Unlike some other undervalued stocks, LDK's plans for growth is clear and straightforward. If LDK builds its polysilicon plant on time, it should double its margins while it rapidly expands its wafer business. There is growth in revenue and from margins which should be very potent combination.

There are some risks in execution of this plan, but LDK's execution has been flawless so far and there is such a large margin of safety in its price, that it shouldn't be an issue except in the most extreme circumstances. Even if LDK's polyplan is delayed a year, there is still lots of upside in the stock.

The main reason I bought this stock is because the polyplant is not priced into the stock by the market. When you see something in the stock that the market doesn't, it might take a while for it to catch on, but when it does, LDK should take off. Not to mention, half the float is shorted in the market, so there will be a huge squeeze in the process.

Now the hard part is waiting until these events to priced into the stock. I might have to wait for the earnings in 2009 to prove my point which is a long way away. The good news is that I can enjoy a lower tax rate when I finally do realize my gains.

LDK can easily go to 100+, and I really don't see any better opportunities for my money out there. In the meantime, I get to experience pain and suffering from the market.

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